Ed's Champions League Rankings

[Ed@PSG]

The eagerly anticipated Champions League Rankings are here. Using detailed analytics and indicies, the teams are ranked against the best possible eleven using the most effective tactic, with 1000 representing the maximum possible score. The numbers are determined using each teams best eleven players in their most effective formation. Consequently, no account is taken of squad age or squad depth, both of which will ultimately have an unknown effect. Below are the 16 teams ranked on score. Later we will consider each group individually.

Rank	Team	Score
#1	PSG	979
#2	RMA	951
#3	MNC	942
#4	MNU	922
#5	JUV	909
#6	LEE	908
#7	ROM	904
#8	INT	870
#9	ARS	843
#10	CHE	838
#11	BCA	836
#12	WHU	833
#13	NEW	819
#14	BUR	811
#15	ACM	800
#16	LIS	660

Group A
Manchester United (Seed), Inter Milan, Arsenal, Barcelona

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#4	MNU	922
#8	INT	870	52	52
#9	ARS	843	27	79
#11	BCA	836	7	86

This is the closest of the four groups with only 86 ranking points separating the four teams. Manchester United have a reasonable margin, and experience of qualifying from the groups, winning the trophy 3 seasons ago. However, only 34 points separate the remaining three teams, suggesting any one of them could grab the 2^nd qualification spot.

Ed’s prediction
1^st: Manchester United 2^nd Inter Milan
The seeded team have a significant margin over the other three teams, and is it difficult to see them not winning the group. Under their current manager, Inter Milan have bolstered their defensive lines, and their style of play will suit the cagey type of games we tend to see in the Champions League.

Group B
Paris Saint Germain (seed), Chelsea, Newcastle, Lisbon

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#1	PSG	979
#10	CHE	838	141	141
#13	NEW	819	19	160
#16	LIS	660	159	319

Sporting Lisbon are the wildcard entrants after winning the DPT, but they are so far off the pace, it is a massive ask for them to finish anywhere other than bottom of the group. Conversely, the French giants have a massive margin over the next best. With their added depth it will surely take an epic fail for them not to qualify. The only uncertainty would appear to be which of the other two teams will secure the other qualification spot

Ed’s prediction
1^st: Paris Saint Germain 2^nd Chelsea
It is difficult to see the reigning champions failing to win the group, never mind failing to qualify. Despite the small gap between Chelsea and Newcastle, the London manager is one of the most experienced when it comes to Champions League success, and he should have enough in the tank to make it to the knockout stages.

Group C
Manchester City (seed), Roma, West Ham United, AC Milan

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#3	MNC	942
#7	ROM	904	38	38
#12	WHU	833	71	109
#15	ACM	800	33	142

In Group C we have two strong teams and two weaker teams, suggesting that the 2 qualifiers should be easy to predict. However the gap between the top two teams is the closest of the four teams, making it a tough call

Ed’s prediction
1^st: Manchester City 2^nd Roma
With the slight points advantage, and the wealth of Champions league success, surely the seeded team will win the group, whilst the Champions League new guy will have to settle for qualifying as runner up.

Group D
Real Madrid (seeded), Juventus, Leeds United, Burnley

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#2	RMA	951
#5	JUV	909	42	42
#6	LEE	908	1	43
#14	BUR	811	97	140

Last years runners up are the strongest team in the group, and headed only by PSG in the 16 team list. At the other end of the table are Burnley, who will likely struggle to avoid finishing bottom of the group. In between we find Juventus and Leeds United, two teams separated by the closest of margins, a solitary point. Both managers have previously achieved Champions League success, amazingly with the same team, Real Madrid, whom they find themselves pitted against in this campaign. This one could go right down to the wire.

Ed’s prediction
1^st: Real Madrid 2^nd Juventus
Whilst Real Madrid find themselves with a new manager, they ought to be strong enough to go through the quarter finals as group winners. With nothing between Juventus and Leeds United, team depth could prove to be the difference that sees the Italian club go through as runner up.

[Ed@PSG]

Ed's DPT Rankings

Following on from the Champions League Rankings we now look at the competition for the teams that couldn’t quite make the elite competititon, The Dave Phillips Trophy (DPT). To recap, using detailed analytics and indicies, the teams are ranked against the best possible eleven using the most effective tactic, with 1000 representing the maximum possible score. The numbers are determined using each teams best eleven players in their most effective formation. Consequently, no account is taken of squad age or squad depth, both of which will ultimately have an unknown effect. Below are the 16 teams ranked on score. Later we will consider each group individually. Two teams are head and shoulders above the other fourteen, and I struggle to see the ultimate winner outside those two. The burning question is whether they can avoid eachother before the final.

Rank	Team	Score
#1	ATM	902
#2	AST	880
#3	SOU	843
#4	LIV	838
#5	LAZ	825
#6	DOR	824
#7	BYM	815
#8	CEL	798
#9	BAR	798
#10	BLA	796
#11	RAN	790
#12	NAP	785
#13	CRY	778
#14	SHW	775
#15	TOT	774
#16	MON	743

Group A
Borussia Dortmund, Celtic, Blackburn Rovers, Sheffield Wednesday

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#6	DOR	824
#8	CEL	798	26	26
#10	BLA	796	2	28
#14	SHW	775	21	49

This is the closest of the 4 groups, with only 49 ranking points separating the 4 teams. With no seeding in this competition, Dortmund are the weakest of the “top” teams. We have the closest gap between 1^st and 3^rd, and also between 1^st and 4^th, suggesting this group is wide open. Qualification will probably come down the tactics and fortune with injuries and suspension.

Ed’s Prediction
1^st Celtic 2^nd Borussia Dortmund
I think the managerial experience of Mati will beat the rankings. He has won elite trophies in the past, and as long as he avoids the “D at 1 down” I can see him winning the group. It is a very close call for 2^nd, and I give it to the germans, simply on the rankings.

Group B
Aston Villa, Lazio, Napoli, Crystal Palace

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#2	AST	880
#5	LAZ	825	55	55
#12	NAP	785	40	95
#13	CRY	778	7	102

Aston Villa are one of two teams that are probsbly too strong for this competition. In fact, were they in the Champions League, they would have a good chance of getting out of the groups. The top 3 teams will all see manager changes before the start of the competition. The gap between 1^st and 2^nd is wider than the spread of the whole of group A, and the gap to third is large.

Ed’s prediction
1^st Aston Villa 2^nd Lazio
It is extremely difficult to see anyone other than Villa winning the group. The manager is astute enough to see off the competition here. With such a large gap vetween 2^nd and 3^rd, and the fact that Napoli might even be under a caretaker, I expect Lazio to easily qualify in second place

Group C
Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Barnsley, Tottenham Hotspur

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#1	ATM	902
#7	BYM	815	87	87
#9	BAR	798	17	104
#15	TOT	774	24	128

Atletico Madrid are far far too good for this competition, and would likely get through the group stages of the Champions League.We also have the largest margin to 2^nd pace. We then have the youthful Bayern Munich, who are slightly higher than Barnsley, whom are strongest ranked third team, with Spurs propping up the group.

Ed’s prediction
1^st Atletico Madrid 2^nd Barnsley
Not only are they my tip to win the group, I fully expect the Spaniards to win the competition. We have the widest margin to second place, and I can see the top team qualifying inside 4 games. Against the rankings, I am going for Barnsley as group runner up. In recent seasons, their manager has managed to “overperform” whilst the german club seem to be struggling to compete after going younger. It is unclear to me whether the germans are chasing success or player development, and I am also unsure whether the players know.

Group D
Southampton, Liverpool, Rangers, Monaco

Rank	Team	Score	Difference	Cumulative
#3	SOU	843
#4	LIV	838	5	5
#11	RAN	790	48	53
#16	MON	743	47	100

This is the closest group with regards to the top 2, with the 3^rd and 4^th ranked teams going to head to head. We also have Monaco, the worst ranked team in the competition, with Rangers making up the 4. Liverpool and Monaco both have new managers, although the likelihood is that the current manager of the French team will be sacked before the club play the first game.

Ed’s prediction
1^st Liverpool 2^nd Southampton
Despite being ranked below their English counterparts, the Liverpool manager is one of the most successful managers in the game at cup football, and I am in no doubt they will progress to the knockout stages as group winners. Southampton ought to have enough quality to see them over the line in second, although I think it will be closer than the ranking suggest.


Total word count 1641 plus research

[Ant]

Optimistic prediction for Barnsley!

[Ed@PSG]

Best of the rest

This leaves 8 teams in the top 2 tiers – 4 in the prem and 4 in EFL1. To recap, using detailed analytics and indicies, the teams are ranked against the best possible eleven using the most effective tactic, with 1000 representing the maximum possible score. The numbers are determined using each teams best eleven players in their most effective formation. Consequently, no account is taken of squad age or squad depth, both of which will ultimately have an unknown effect. Below are the remaining eight teams

Rank	Team	Score
#1	FIO	841
#2	SEV	824
#3	BYL	770
#4	LEI	710
#5	WAT	705
#6	CAR	685
#7	EVE	679
#8	FEY	640

Fiorentina and Sevilla are good enough to match some of the lesser CL teams, and would be expected to get through the group stages of the DPT. Of the remaining teams, just Bayer Leverkusen have comparable numbers to the DPT teams, meaning EFL1 teams occupy the top 3 spots.

[Ed@PSG]

Rank	Team	Score
#1	PSG	979
#2	RMA	951
#3	JUV	909
#4	ROM	904
#5	ATM	902
#6	INT	870
#7	FIO	841
#8	BCA	836
#9	LAZ	825
#10	DOR	824
#11	SEV	824
#12	BYM	815
#13	ACM	800
#14	CEL	798
#15	RAN	790
#16	NAP	785
#17	BYL	770
#18	MON	743
#19	LIS	660
#20	FEY	640

Rank	Team	Score
#1	MNC	942
#2	MNU	922
#3	LEE	908
#4	AST	880
#5	SOU	843
#6	ARS	843
#7	LIV	838
#8	CHE	838
#9	WHU	833
#10	NEW	819
#11	BUR	811
#12	BAR	798
#13	BLA	796
#14	CRY	778
#15	SHW	775
#16	TOT	774
#17	LEI	710
#18	WAT	705
#19	CAR	685
#20	EVE	679

July word count 1933 plus research

[Tony@Blackburn]

Suck it Ed

[Tony@Blackburn]