EFL 1 Club by Club Financial Analysis

[Gary@Millwall]

The EFL 1 Financial end of season Financial Forecast after 37 games with the same methodology used for the Premier League and Championship thread.

Real Madrid

Current Balance: £56,615,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 1
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 3
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £33,500,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: Champions = £30m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 5K last season = £14m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Ian Greaves had big shoes to fill taking over from previous manager Steve Talbot and has delivered the EFL League Trophy at the first attempt.

Getting knocked out in the Champions League Quarter Finals by former Real Madrid’s former manager Steve Talbot would have hurt Ian and I can imagine a few player changes in the close season as Ian will want to add further trophies in the coming seasons.

Current Balance: £56,615,000
League Gate Receipts: £10,530,000
League Winners: £30,000,000
Champions League QF: £5,000,000
Media: £4,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Wages: (£24,700,000)
Stadium Upgrade 5k: (£14,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £74,945,000

With a squad full of talent Real Madrid have a huge wage bill and it would not surprise me if Ian adds 10k seats this season rather than the 5k he added last season for an additional £15m. I also expect a few more player changes as Ian really starts to put his stamp on Real Madrid.

With money tight in the game and not many players that would improve Real Madrid Ian may well have to pay a premium to get the players he wants so I don’t expect Real Madrid to invest in their Academy again.

[Gary@Millwall]

Juventus

Current Balance: £226,620,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 3
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 3
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £57,700,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: Runners Up to 3rd = £22m to £21m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 10K last season = £29m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 75% probable £65m this season

Windebank View

Andy Banks knows how to build teams that stay at the top way after he leaves them with Real Madrid being a prime example. He is relentless going after players he wants to sign and always seems to get a bargain from auctions when he is not banned.

This has helped him gather a huge balance for the close season and he will surly put that to good effect to rectify just falling short of winning the EFL League for the first time with Juventus.

Current Balance: £226,620,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,775,000
League Runner Up: £22,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£23,650,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£29,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£20,000,000)
Total Maximum Funds: £196,245,000

Andy Banks has a huge financial war chest even with me forecasting that he will add another 10k seats to his Stadium. I also expect him to buy Juventus first coach but am assuming he will not invest the £45m in his first scout and potentially only spend £24m on two new academy players.

With the players that Andy will want to add to his squad being the best players in the game and the fact Andy is the pantomime villain any player Andy wants will have an additional premium on his head for Andy to secure him.

[Gary@Millwall]

PSG

Current Balance: £105,364,998
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 2
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £5,600,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: Runners Up to 3rd = £22m to £21m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 10K last season = £29m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £20m Last season = 90% probable £20m this season

Windebank View

What a team Ed has assembled over multiple seasons being so full of star players despite the SHN values reducing massively for many Clubs PSG only lose £5.6m on the Balance Sheet. This quality comes at a cost with the PSG wage bill being £28m.

Despite these riches and PSG being in both the Champions League and EFL Cup final Ed will not be happy with the League season where he can finish at best runners up.
But how does Ed improve that beast of a squad? I have no idea to be honest but it wont surprise me if Ed finds a way to do it.

Current Balance: £105,364,998
League Gate Receipts: £8,775,000
League Runner Up: £22,000,000
Champions League Winners: £20,000,000
Champions League Gates: £8,000,000
EFL Cup Winners: £10,000,000
EFL Cup Gates: £2,500,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£28,050,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£29,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£20,000,000)
Total Maximum Funds: £111,089,998

Ed was one of the few Big Clubs that invested in a coach last season and will be again this close season for the maximum 30 weeks training. He bought two academy players for £24m and may do so again this close season rather than investing £45m for a free Academy player for 5 seasons.

It is imperative that Ed adds another 10k seats due to his astronomical wage bill and even then PSG have to win trophies (which they should do) every season. Even with a £2 per ticket increase and adding 10k seats PSG will only receive £38.5m in League gate receipts.

With Real Madrid established and Juventus biting at the heals of the two giants Ed will want to improve but god knows how he will do that.

Yes they are first world problems but with less and less money in the game and the £300m balance cap Ed will have to use all his magic to stay ahead of the rest

[Gary@Millwall]

Inter Milan

Current Balance: £7,410,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 2
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £72,500,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 4th to 6th = £20m to £18m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 5K last season = £12m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £45m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Johnboy has had a great season in his first season at the helm of the San Siro Club. A win in the last game of the season away to fierce rivals AC Milan will see Inter Milan achieve their highest finish since the FFO reset.

Inter Milan reached the Semi Final of the Champions League and a massive EFL Cup Final against PSG where Johnboy will be doing everything he can to win that Trophy.

Current Balance: £7,410,000
League Gate Receipts: £9,720,000
League 4^th Place: £20,000,000
CL Semi Final: £9,000,000
CL Gate Receipts: £4,000,000
EFL Cup Winners: £10,000,000
EFL Cup Gate Receipts: £2,500,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£20,450,000)
Stadium Upgrade 5k: (£12,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £41,680,000

Despite a great season Johnboy will probably be very active in the transfer market to try and close the gap on the big three above him. Due to the huge wage bill Johnboy is likely to add a further 5k seats but will probably not invest in the Academy this season after spending £45m on a scout at the beginning of this season.

Johnboy may well be concerned that despite a cracking season Inter Milan could well have under £40m in the Bank if he does not win the EFL Cup or slips down the table to 6^th if the result against AC Milan does not go Inter Milans way.

[Gary@Millwall]

Bayern Munich

Current Balance: £68,230,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 1
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £66,300,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 4th to 6th = £20m to £18m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 5K last season = £12m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

With Jon Banks moving to Championship Norwich City, Munich plans are a bit of an unknown with Ant Harris being selected as the man to help Bayern Munich take the next step and utilise the treasure chest of quality young players Jon Banks leaves behind.

Jon bails out with him achieving Munich’s best finish in FFO recent history and Ant has big shoes to fill but this should be no problem for Ant at all.

Current Balance: £68,230,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,100,000
League 4^th to 6th Place: £20,000,000
DPT Quarter Finals: £4,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£18,050,000)
Stadium Upgrade 5k: (£12,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £81,780,000

With money looking to be really sparse before Season 5 kicks off Ant will have quite a big starting balance and it will be interesting to see if he adds the full 10k seats for a further cost of £13m to try and negate the increase in wages that will occur at the end of the season or early into next once the juicy youth EOS re-rates are applied.

Whether Ant invests in Coach is still an unknown but I can see Ant trying to make the right improvements to the squad and first team to try and break into the top three next season.

[Gary@Millwall]

AC Milan

Current Balance: £36,505,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 4
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 2
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £67,600,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 4th to 7th = £20m to £17m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Cheyenne Hollis will be looking to beat Inter Milan and see Munich not win their last game of the season so he can equal last season’s best finish of 4^th place.

Despite reaching the Champions League Semi Final and EFL Cup Quarter Final Cheyenne will not be happy with this as historically only winning Trophies is acceptable success.

Current Balance: £36,505,000
League Gate Receipts: £7,425,000
League 4th Place: £20,000,000
Champions League Semi Final: £9,000,000
Champions League Gate Receipts: £4,000,000
EFL Cup Quarter Final: £3,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£17,400,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £70,030,000

AC Milan will potentially have quite a big balance compared to most Clubs. With Messi retiring at the end of this season Cheyenne might have to spend big to replace Argentine superstar who scored a great 19 goals in his final season in FFO.

With no infrastructure costs spent last season it will be interesting to see of there is enough spare funds to increase AC Milan's version of the San Siro from its rather tiny current 55k capacity.

It would not surprise me if AC Milan continue to invest nothing in their Academy as I expect Cheyenne will want a real crack at winning Trophies next season.

[Gary@Millwall]

Atletico Madrid

Current Balance: £67,119,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 2
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 2
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £44,100,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 6th to 7th = £18m to £17m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 10K last season = £29m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Simon Marsh has been a revelation since he became manager at the Wanda Metropolitano despite finishing 8^th last season Atletico Madrid had to enter the DPT European competition where they are to play the final in the next week. Simon has qualified directly for the Champions League this season where they will finish either 6^th or 7^th depending on the results on the last day of the season.

Current Balance: £67,119,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,775,000
League 6th Place: £18,000,000
DPT Potential Winners: £15,000,000
DPT Gate Receipts: £4,500,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£22,250,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£29,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £73,644,000

With Atletico Madrid being a really well run Club its no surprise that they potentially have a really good bank balance going into season 5 bonanza and that’s with me forecasting they again increase their ground Capacity by another 10k seats.

I would be surprised if Marshy invests in the Academy and he is more likely to try and improve an already quality squad to try and have a good run at the EFL Title next season.

[Gary@Millwall]

Barcelona

Current Balance: £1,910,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 4
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £77,250,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 8th = £16m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 5K last season = £12m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Transfer addict Sam Bradwell will be very pleased that his only season at Barcelona sees them qualify for the Champions League with a game to spare.

Matias Finkelstein will bring some stability to the player merry go round next season as he takes a more calculated view when building his teams, however with funds limited Matias will have his work cut out building Barcelona into the force they were under Livi Edwards.

Current Balance: £1,910,000
League Gate Receipts: £9,720,000
League 8th Place: £16,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£18,650,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£12,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £4,480,000

With Matias already listing the Barcelona squad ready for the bonanza and star striker big Lewandowski hitting 37 years of age, Matias may well decide the Nou Camp does not need a capacity increase.

With potentially very limited funds it is highly unlikely that Barcelona will invest in the Academy as they will be trying to raise funds for squad improvements and age reduction on some of their older players.

[Gary@Millwall]

Sevilla

Current Balance: £4,310,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 2
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 3
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £80,250,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 9th to 10th = £15m to £14m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Sevilla have had a remarkable season after bouncing back from relegation to finish in the top half of the table under Alfredo Gandarlos.

Sevilla will quite rightly get the staying up bonus of £25m and with a very old defence whatever funds the Spanish Club have are likely going to go on a fresh defensive line.

Current Balance: £4,310,000
League Gate Receipts: £6,075,000
League 9th Place: £15,000,000
DBC Quarter Finals: £3,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Staying up Bonus: £25,000,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£16,550,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £44,335,000

Although not a massive projected balance with money so tight in the game Alfredo will be hoping to take advantage of Clubs needing to raise funds to perform major surgery on his backline.

I don’t think there will be enough cash to expand the Stadium or invest in the Academy but Alfredo could to surprise me and change direction.

[Gary@Millwall]

Fiorentina

Current Balance: £8,499,500
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 1
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 5
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £66,500,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 9th to 12th = £15m to £12m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £25m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Neil Kirby knows how to get results as he proves time and time again that skill and making the right deals at the right time means he always gets the best out of the sides he manages.

Neil will be well chuffed with his sides performance and will be licking he lips at the £25m staying bonus he has so richly earned.

Current Balance: £8,499,500
League Gate Receipts: £6,750,000
League 9th Place: £15,000,000
DBC Semi Finals: £5,000,000
DBC Gate Receipts: £1,500,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Staying up Bonus: £25,000,000
Wages: (£19,150,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £50,099,500

With the squad a good age and Neil’s ability to spot a great transfer deal I expect Neil to add some more quality to the First Team squad to try and break into the Champions League places next season.

This will probably come at the expense of increasing the Stadium Capacity and the Academy. However, with the Stadium only 50k you do wonder how long until Neil invest in more seats to try and cover some of the wages expenditure.

[Gary@Millwall]

Roma

Current Balance: £260,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 4
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £66,400,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 10th to 12th = £14m to £12m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 10K last season = £29m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £100m Last season = 90% probable £65m this season

Windebank View

Hamza had big shoes to fill taking over the Club that Derek Hughes built and will be devastated how this season has panned out.

Inheriting a huge bank balance but ageing squad, Hamza invested more money in infrastructure costs than any other Club in FFO at £122m.

Hamza sold the crown jewels for a long term plan and he will be hoping to get Roma back to the top as quickly as possible

Current Balance: £260,000
League Gate Receipts: £12,285,000
League 10th Place: £14,000,000
EFL Cup Semi Final: £5,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£20,950,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£29,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£65,000,000)
Total Maximum Funds Deficit: (£75,905,000)

The bank account looks bleak in Rome and the vultures could be circling to pick off some of Roma’s star players.

Hamza will be smashing up his abacus trying to work out how he can afford to invest in infrastructure again this season, although with money tight across the game this could be too big a challenge for this close season.

Hamza will have his work cut out this close season especially without Champions League football but I am sure he will work his magic and get Roma back at the top table before long.

[Gary@Millwall]

Celtic

Current Balance: £805,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 6
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £78,600,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 10th to 12th = £14m to £12m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 5K last season = £10m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Football is a funny old game and Matias Finkelstein replaced Sam Bradwell like he is next season at Barcelona.

Matias has done well this season reaching the DPT Cup Quarter Final and achieving a top half finish.

The Celtic Board will be hoping to attract a high quality manager to try and take Celtic to the next level.

Current Balance: £805,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,910,000
League 10th Place: £14,000,000
DPT Quarter Final: £4,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£17,400,000)
Stadium Upgrade 5k: (£10,000,000)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £7,815,000

It will be interesting to see who Celtic will be able to attract as manager next season.

With limited resources and about to lose six players whoever takes the job will have a tough gig on their hands.

[Gary@Millwall]

Monaco

Current Balance: £3,400,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 2
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 5
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £75,250,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 13th to 14th = £11m to £10m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Caretaker manager Mike Bridge has done amazing with limited resources and one of the smallest wage bills in EFL 1.

It will be interesting to see who the Monaco Board will be able to attract to take the French Club forward.

Current Balance: £3,400,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,100,000
League 13th Place: £11,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £4,000,000
Wages: (£12,450,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £21,550,000

With no real stars and limited funds the Monaco fans will be looking to the heavens for a messiah to walk into the Louis II Stadium.

One things for sure filling Mike Bridges boots and replicating this season is going to be a real challenge from the next manager

[Gary@Millwall]

Rangers

Current Balance: £8,205,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 1
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 4
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £84,350,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 13th to 15th = £8m to £4m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £0m Last season = 90% probable £0m this season

Windebank View

Long term Rangers manager Aaron Burrows is having a reasonable season with him again qualifying for the DPT Trophy a competition he reached the Semi Final this season.

Aaron has built a competitive well aged squad over the course of a good few seasons in a measured and calculated way which I would be shocked if he deviated from this close season.

Current Balance: £8,205,000
League Gate Receipts: £8,910,000
League 13th Place: £11,000,000
DPT Semi Final: £7,000,000
DPT Gate Receipts: £3,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£15,600,000)
Stadium Upgrade 0k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£0)
Total Maximum Funds: £30,015,000

It will be interesting to see if Aaron invest some money in increasing Ibrox capacity as well as trying to trade up current players by adding a little cash with teams that have some financial troubles.

I would be surprised if Rangers invest in their Academy but you never know.

[Gary@Millwall]

Napoli

Current Balance: £400,000
Number Players to be lost due to be over 31 Years of Age with Zero Value: 4
Number of players that can be promoted from Academy: 5
Net Reduction in SHN Value (not including EOS abs): £67,650,000.
Potential Prize Money:

• League Finish: 14th to 15th = £10m to £9m
• Objectives last season = £7.5m
• Stadium Upgrade 0K last season = £0m to repeat this season
• Academy Improvements £44m Last season = 90% probable £20m this season

Windebank View

Napoli are under the stewardship of caretake manager Tony Ayre and will be hoping a full time manager is hired in the close season willing to take them forward after qualifying for the DPT Cup yet again.

Finances look very squeezed and some of the OAPs may need to be replaced but having invested in a coach last season it appears the previous manager was looking to try and bring some quality through the Academy.

Current Balance: £400,000
League Gate Receipts: £6,750,000
League 14th Place: £10,000,000
Objective Money: £7,500,000
Media: £0
Wages: (£13,800,000)
Stadium Upgrade 10k: (£0)
Academy Upgrade (Scout and Coach): (£20,000,000)
Total Maximum Funds Deficit: (£9,150,000)

Whoever takes the helm of Napoli will have their work cut out raising funds to ensure they get their 2^nd coach to get the full 30 weeks training of their Academy players in season 5.

Whoever the manager is they may try and cash in on Sadio Mane as he turns 33 in the close season.

The Napoli fans will be waiting with excitement to see who their new full-time manager will be.